Migration figures fall sharply as Burnham signals shift on key policies

Andy Burnham has stated that net migration in the UK “needs to fall further”, despite official statistics revealing the figure has declined by approximately 50% since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor and Labour’s candidate in the by-election in Makerfield made the comments after the Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday that migration contributed 171,000 people to the UK’s population last year — the lowest level since 2012, excluding the Covid pandemic. Burnham said constituents have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him on the doorstep, and whilst he backs the “main thrust” of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposed changes to make it harder for migrants to establish permanent residence, he stressed the government must “achieve the correct equilibrium” on the controversial measure.

Net migration hits lowest point in over a decade

The most recent Office for National Statistics data marks a substantial turning point in the UK’s immigration direction. The figure of 171,000 represents the smallest yearly net migration figures since 2012, a sharp turnaround from the record highs observed in the past few years. This significant drop demonstrates the government’s concerted efforts to tighten immigration policy and lower overall population inflow through tougher visa conditions and stricter enforcement.

The progress has been noted by senior Labour figures, who regard the data as proof that their migration approach is yielding tangible results. However, officials have warned that further reductions are necessary to achieve their long-term objectives. The Home Office has warned that without additional policy changes, approximately 1.6 million people could obtain lasting residency between 2026 and 2030, prompting the administration’s drive for tougher settlement requirements.

• Net migration fell from record highs to lowest level since 2012
• 171,000 people contributed to UK population through net migration in the past year
• Government intends to make long-term residency significantly harder for migrants
• Home Office projects 1.6m potential settlers without policy intervention

Settlement rules undergo significant reform amid political debate

The government’s plans to strengthen settlement rules have sparked considerable disagreement within Labour’s internal ranks, with several senior figures publicly questioning the backward-looking character of the proposed changes. Ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been notably critical in her criticism, describing the policy as “un-British” and accused the government of “moving the goalposts” on those relocating to Britain who have already started building lives in the UK. These concerns reveal deep divisions within the party over how to manage the tension between immigration control with fairness and humanitarian concerns.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has supported the proposals as essential and equitable, maintaining they are essential to prevent what she refers to as a “drain on our public finances”. She has highlighted that the reforms are measured approaches to anticipated intake levels that could hit 1.6 million people between 2026 and 2030 without intervention. The engagement exercise on these contentious proposals will be vital in ascertaining whether the administration can strike a balance that meets the needs of both strict enforcers and those concerned about the human impact of more stringent controls.

What the suggested modifications signify

Settlement, formally known as indefinite leave to remain, provides individuals the right to live, work and study in the UK permanently, whilst also enabling them to obtain specific welfare support if qualified. The government’s proposed changes would significantly increase the difficulty for migrants to attain this position, effectively restricting extended residence prospects. This represents a major change in approach designed to control population growth and lower forecast settlement figures considerably over the coming years.

• Settlement provides permanent right to reside and work in UK
• Proposed changes would make permanent residence considerably more difficult to obtain
• Policy aims to reduce an estimated 1.6m settlements between 2026-2030

Burnham shifts position on contentious social issues

Andy Burnham has signalled a notable change in his position on single-sex spaces, acknowledging that his thinking has developed in light of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission’s new guidance on the matter. The Mayor of Greater Manchester told the BBC on Friday that he now accepts the Supreme Court ruling that defines a woman under the Equality Act as based on biological sex, stating it “has to be implemented”. This represents a significant shift from his earlier position, when he suggested that concerns about trans women in women’s toilets were held by only a “small minority”.

Burnham emphasised, however, that whilst acknowledging the legal framework, the implementation must be approached with sensitivity and compassion. He pointed out that the decision should not become “a kind of victory over other people in society” and warned against continuing to marginalise already vulnerable groups. His finely balanced position attempts to reconcile legal obligations with social responsibility, demonstrating wider party divisions over how to navigate increasingly polarised debates around questions of gender and equality.

The development of his viewpoint

When pressed on whether his position had changed, Burnham was candid, telling journalists: “I’ll be honest, yes. I’ve followed the debate as it’s progressed over the years.” His admission reflects a willingness to reassess established positions in light of legal developments and community engagement, demonstrating the flexibility in stance-taking on contentious social matters within the party.

By-election battle intensifies in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham’s comments on immigration and social policy arrive as Labour gears up for a critical by-election contest in Makerfield, a long-standing safe Labour seat in Greater Manchester. The electoral contest, prompted by the departure of sitting MP Mike Jevons, constitutes a significant test of the party’s position in a heartland constituency where working-class anxieties about immigration and public services have long dominated local political discourse. Burnham’s willingness to acknowledge public anxieties about migration whilst upholding the government’s wider strategy suggests Labour is keenly aware of the political sensitivities surrounding these issues in previously industrial regions.

The Makerfield contest holds significant symbolic importance, as the constituency has been held by Labour since 1997 and any significant swing away from the party would reverberate across Westminster. Burnham’s prominent campaign efforts in the seat underscores Labour’s determination to hold the line, whilst his repositioning on major policy matters signals an attempt to address voter concerns head-on rather than overlook them. The by-election outcome will offer an early indicator of whether the government’s approach of recognising public sentiment whilst maintaining progressive policies can effectively manage the complex political landscape of contemporary British politics.

• Makerfield controlled by Labour from 1997 with minimal opposition
• Election prompted by incumbent Member of Parliament Mike Jevons’ departure
• Result will demonstrate the government’s polling performance in core Labour areas