Europe faces a severe aviation fuel shortage over the next three weeks unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, based on a stark warning from the European airport sector. The Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has alerted European commissioners that widespread aviation fuel deficits will materialise if the Persian Gulf passage remains closed, as the region delivers around half of Europe’s jet fuel supply. The alert arrives as airlines globally have already commenced cutting flights and raising passenger fares amid aviation fuel worries, whilst benchmark European jet fuel prices have surged to an record peak of $1,838 per tonne—more than double pre-war levels. Regional European airports are considered particularly vulnerable to disruption throughout the forthcoming peak season.
The three-week countdown period
In a letter to EU energy and tourism commissioners dated 9 April, ACI Europe’s director-general Olivier Jankovec laid out a detailed schedule for potential catastrophe. If the Strait of Hormuz does not resume substantial and consistent passage within three weeks, the continent faces widespread aviation fuel deficits that will severely disrupt airport operations and flight links across the European Union. The warning emphasises the precarious position of Europe’s aviation sector, which depends substantially on Gulf supplies and has already seen fuel prices increase twofold since the conflict began.
The timing could barely be worse. Summer constitutes the high season for European tourism and aviation, when airports usually run at maximum capacity and passenger traffic reaches its yearly peak. Olivier Jankovec highlighted that “depending solely on market forces and adaptation is not feasible,” advocating for direct intervention from the EU through joint fuel purchasing and temporary loosening of import restrictions. He emphasised that regional airports, already grappling with viability issues, could encounter existential risks if shortages materialise during the vital summer season.
- Strait of Hormuz blockade jeopardises 50 per cent of UK and European jet fuel supplies
- Airlines globally already cutting flights and increasing passenger charges preemptively
- Benchmark jet fuel prices hit record $1,838 per tonne, up from $831
- Summer tourism season approaching, heightening urgency of jet fuel shortage
Regional airports shoulder the burden
Europe’s regional airports experience disproportionate risk from the approaching fuel crisis, with facilities serving fewer than one million passengers annually already maintaining unstable financial conditions. These regional hubs, which serve vital connectivity functions across the continent and support local economies, lack the buying capacity and fuel reserves of large hub airports. Jankovec warned that the current crisis risks making these already fragile operations even more exposed, potentially leading to closures that would devastate communities relying on air connectivity and the jobs that air transport sustains.
The financial stakes extend far beyond individual airports. Aviation contributes €851 billion annually to economies across Europe and supports 14 million jobs throughout Europe. A systemic fuel shortage would reverberate through supply networks, tourism industries, and regional development. Smaller airports, particularly those in peripheral regions, would face the harshest consequences, as they do not have alternative infrastructure and revenue streams to weather prolonged disruption. The situation therefore jeopardises not only operations in aviation but wider European unity and economic stability.
Risk across Europe
Regional airports run with minimal fuel stockpiles and limited financial resilience compared to large hub airports. Many lack direct relationships with fuel suppliers, instead depending on intermediaries and spot market purchases. During periods of supply constraint, these regional operations would find it difficult to obtain the required fuel at any price, forcing flight cancellations and operational shutdowns. The ensuing disruption would disproportionately impact peripheral European regions, where aviation provides crucial economic lifelines and links to larger markets and employment opportunities.
Market forces and price spikes
| Period | Jet fuel price per tonne |
|---|---|
| Before the war began | $831 |
| Last week (benchmark high) | $1,838 (£1,387) |
| Price increase | 121% rise |
The aviation sector is contending with unprecedented fuel cost challenges, with jet fuel costs across Europe reaching an all-time high of $1,838 per tonne the previous week—more than twice as much from $831 prior to the conflict’s onset. This significant 121 per cent increase demonstrates the unstable supply conditions and has already led airlines worldwide to respond with cost reduction strategies. A number of airlines have cut back on flight numbers and introduced passenger fees to counterbalance mounting fuel expenses, effectively passing costs to travellers during a period when demand for air travel usually reaches its height.
Jankovec stressed that current price levels are unlikely to stabilise quickly, noting that conventional jet fuel costs will probably remain elevated in the longer term. This systemic shift in fuel economics jeopardises airline operational viability and profitability, especially for smaller airlines and regional carriers with limited financial resources. The crisis underscores the pressing need for alternative solutions, including stepped-up investment in sustainable aviation fuel production and intervention at EU level to steady markets and prevent additional price rises that could fundamentally transform European aviation’s competitive landscape.
Calls for unified EU-wide action
Olivier Jankovec, chief executive of Airports Council International Europe, has issued an urgent call for decisive intervention from European Union leaders, arguing that competition by itself cannot resolve the looming fuel shortage. In a correspondence sent to European commissioners for energy and tourism, he stressed that relying solely on adjustments and spot purchasing would fall short to avert widespread supply gaps. Jankovec’s appeal highlights a critical governance gap: the European Union presently has no robust frameworks for evaluating and tracking jet fuel production and availability across member states, leaving the region vulnerable to fuel supply interruptions.
ACI Europe has proposed tangible measures to address the crisis, pursuing EU backing for joint fuel procurement schemes that would leverage the continent’s collective bargaining power. The organisation has also pushed for short-term relief of import restrictions and regulations that presently limit jet fuel availability. These recommendations signal a major transformation in thinking—away from market-only approaches towards coordinated, strategic intervention. Such measures would allow local aviation operators to secure fuel supplies at steadier costs, stopping the chain-reaction cancellations that jeopardise Europe’s busy travel season and general economic strength.
- Implement EU-wide joint procurement of jet fuel to reinforce bargaining power
- Temporarily lift import controls limiting fuel availability
- Establish robust tracking frameworks for jet fuel manufacturing throughout EU member states
Eco-friendly aircraft fuel opportunity
The current crisis offers an timely opportunity to increase investment in SAF production and render it economically viable, Jankovec argues. Whilst traditional aviation fuel prices are expected to stay elevated indefinitely, SAF offers a sustained pathway to cost stability and ecological responsibility. Backing SAF expansion through direct financial support, regulatory incentives, and infrastructure investment could shield European aviation from upcoming market disruptions whilst advancing climate commitments. This two-fold approach converts an pressing challenge into a driver for systemic transformation within the aviation sector.
Economic consequences for Europe
The potential fuel crisis occurs at a especially vulnerable period for European aviation, which already contends with growing pressure from increased operating costs and changing consumer behaviour. Air travel provides an estimated €851 billion each year to European economies and supports 14 million jobs across the continent. A systemic jet fuel shortage would ripple through this interconnected ecosystem, affecting not only airlines and airports but also the tourism, hospitality, and leisure sectors that require steady passenger flows. The summer tourism season—typically the industry’s most lucrative period—would be severely compromised, jeopardising revenue streams for communities dependent on seasonal travel.
Smaller airports and local airlines face disproportionate exposure to this crisis. Facilities serving fewer than one million passengers annually already struggle with financial viability without accounting for fuel supply disruptions, according to Jankovec. A prolonged shortage could render some financially unviable to operate, potentially fracturing Europe’s aviation network and exacerbating regional disparities. The financial repercussions extend beyond the aviation sector itself; reduced connectivity threatens commercial investment, trade flows, and the social cohesion that international travel facilitates. For peripheral and rural communities, closure of airports could trigger wider economic contraction and accelerate emigration of residents.